This month I want to highlight an article, Software estimation is your most costly activity. Why not reduce it? by Brian Kelly. Brian notes common pitfalls when we attempt to improve estimation precision, such as wasted time that does not generate value for customers, and offers tips on how to use estimations effectively. Even though estimation is imprecise by definition, I find estimations highly valuable when creating predictability. A teams’ historical estimation data tends to meaningfully relate to previous estimates, even if the data did not predict reality. We can use this data to model past estimates vs. actual deliveries, and thus predict future deliveries.
“The evidence is damning, and clear: software estimates are disconnected from reality. The complexities of modern software development along with unpredictable external factors make it essentially impossible to estimate within a reasonable margin of error.”
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